Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire within 30 days?
NO
93% probability of NO
Answer dated 1 October 2026 at 22:55 UTC
What this question means
Russia and Ukraine both publicly announce the same new nationwide ceasefire agreement covering their armed conflict within the target interval. Exclude unilateral declarations, local pauses, prisoner exchanges and sector-only deals. The agreement need not have started yet.
This is an AI estimate, not a confirmed outcome. Read about the method and its limits.
Sources behind this answer
- Ответы на вопросы представителей СМИ
- I thank our warriors for the results they achieve every day in carrying out Ukraine’s long-range sanctions. Over the past 24 hours, two oil refineries were hit – one in Bashkortostan and one in the Samara region. There were also strikes in the Black Sea. We are taking the war back to where it came from. We are bringing peace closer for Ukraine. I thank the units involved for their precision.
- Grateful to our Latvian friends @EdgarsRinkevics, @AndrisKulbergs and other EU partners for keeping up the legal front against the war of aggression against Ukraine. As Russia is escalating the killing of civilians – there have been more attacks overnight and into the day with drones and ballistic missiles – pressure on Moscow must be strengthened. In particular, against enablers of Putin’s war. Against those who benefit from the aggression. Every crime against peaceful Ukrainians has a name. And as long as this war continues, these names must be on the sanctions lists. The world needs not a political delisting, but timely and unconditional rollover of individual sanctions, until Moscow engages in serious peace negotiations and takes concrete steps to end its war against Ukraine. This is the shortest path to peace we all are striving for. Every Ukrainian family is counting on EU unity and solidarity.
- Заседание дискуссионного клуба «Валдай»
- Первое заседание Госдумы девятого созыва
- Встреча с избранными главами регионов
- 🇷🇺🇷🇸 По инициативе сербской стороны состоялся телефонный разговор Владимира Путина с Президентом Сербии Александром Вучичем🔹Сербский лидер поздравил Президента России с успешным проведением выборов в Государственную Думу Федерального Собрания Российской Федерации.🔹Обсуждены различные аспекты дальнейшего развития российско-сербских отношений стратегического партнёрства, в том числе в энергетике, нефтегазовой отрасли, транспорте и здравоохранении. Александр Вучич поблагодарил за оказываемую Россией всестороннюю поддержку Сербии, а также выразил отдельную признательность за содействие в тушении лесных пожаров.🔹Президент Сербии проинформировал о ходе подготовки к внеочередным парламентским выборам. С обеих сторон подчёркнута недопустимость внешнего вмешательства в электоральные процессы.🔹Затронуты актуальные вопросы международной повестки дня, в том числе украинский конфликт. Александр Вучич поделился впечатлениями по итогам участия в неделе высокого уровня 81-й сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН. В ходе обмена мнениями о ситуации на Балканах главы государств отметили необходимость сохранения Дейтонской архитектуры в Боснии и Герцеговине и обеспечения легитимных прав и интересов Республики Сербской.🔹Разговор прошёл в тёплом, дружеском ключе.
- Встреча с руководством политических партий
- Allocutions à Metz : Aux racines de l'Europe pour la paix et l'unité.
- I met with @EmmanuelMacron. We spoke primarily about security and the winter support package for Ukraine. We are also ready to secure additional SAMP/T air defense systems and missiles for them using the financial resources available through the EU loan. We continue working on the possibility of producing these air defense systems and missiles in Ukraine, as well as on the joint FREYJA anti-ballistic program with our partners. We expect to see the first results this year. We are doing everything we can to strengthen the protection of our people. Thank you, Emmanuel! Thank you, France!
- Voyage apostolique du Pape Léon XIV en France.
- Millions of books a year were printed in this space in Ukraine. But months after a Russian missile hit the Konvi print shop in July, burned pages still litter the floor. The Kremlin did not respond to an AP request for comment about the Russian strikes on Ukraine’s publishing infrastructure.