What will the Fed do at its rate decision on 28/10?
RAISE
80% probability of RAISE
Answer dated 1 October 2026 at 22:55 UTC
What this question means
Forecast the change in the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the scheduled FOMC decision identified by the scheduled event time. Compare with the target range immediately before that decision; exclude earlier emergency decisions.
This is an AI estimate, not a confirmed outcome. Read about the method and its limits.
Sources behind this answer
- Jefferson, The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
- Barr, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
- Barr, A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter
- Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- CPI for all items increases 0.4% in August; gasoline rises
- CPI for all items increases 0.1% in July; shelter rises
- Cook, An Update on AI and the Economy
- Payroll employment increases by 162,000 in August; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%
- Both payroll employment (-23,000) and unemployment rate (4.1%) change little in July
- Cook, The Dual Mandate in Rural America
- Tech rally boosts Asian stocks, dollar firms on rate-hike wagers https://t.co/xYuFGaawVQ https://t.co/xYuFGaawVQ
- CPI for all items falls 0.4% in June; gasoline down